Quanto vale lo yuan?
Caligs
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venerdì, luglio 29, 2005
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Le odierne notizie che dimostrano il continuo controllo della Banca centrale cinese sulla sua valuta sono un buon pretesto per cercare di studiare il comportamento del Governo di Pechino e ridiscutere il significato della manovra monetaria. Negli Stati Uniti il dibattito è acceso; per molti economisti e quotidiani (vedi economist.com) gli squilibri presenti negli States possono essere risolti solo dal comportamento dell’economie orientali. Il senatore Lindsey Graham, al congresso China Economic and Security Review Commission, è stato chiaro: lo yuan è sottovalutato da un range che va dal 15% al 40%. Nella quarta pagina del rapporto si legge:“A key factor contributing to the U.S. deficit with China is the undervaluation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar. This gives Chinese manufacturers a competitive advantage over U.S. manufacturers. Economic fundamentals suggest that the Chinese yuan is undervalued, with a growing consensus of economists estimating the level of undervaluation to be anywhere from fifteen to forty percent.”
Nel recente dibattito Roubini vs Altig i due economisti hanno commentato e cercato di prevedere il futuro del rapporto dollaro-yuan.
Nouriel Roubini ha scritto:
“If China were to liberalize its capital account regime - on capital inflows as much as on capital outflows - and stop intervening, the Chinese currency could appreciate by more than 20%, minimum.”
David Altig risponde:
“In the overall scheme of things, if you put any faith at all in markets' ability to provide best guesses of such things, the expected magnitude of RMB-appreciation looks pretty moderate. By the last update I received, non-deliverable forward foreign exchange contracts were suggesting a total appreciation of about 8% over the next twelve months. That includes the 2% today. This is up a bit from yesterday, when 6% was the bet, but it still doesn't add up to great drama.”
Secondo David Altig il comportamento delle divise estere influiscono sulle aspettative dei mercati che a sua volta suggeriscono un apprezzamento dello yuan di circa il 10%. L’analisi di David sembrerebbe coesistere con i risultati derivanti dal rapporto di Balassa-Samuelson riassunto e discusso da Jaff Frankel.
Il professore dell’Università di Harvard attraverso lo studio di questo appunto mostra come la differenza tra valore reale e quello corrente della moneta in questione sia pari a 40 punti percentuali, ma considerando l’entità dell’ultimo apprezzamento e le presunte strategie del Governo cinese, c’è solamente da aspettarsi un aumento del rapporto yuan-dollaro del 10%.
"Few economists would seriously recommend a revaluation over a short period of time of the yuan on the order of magnitude suggested by this interpretation of the Balassa-Samuelson equation. In the first place, a sudden revaluation of the currency of this magnitude would beJoseph Stiglitz - come Frankel – oltre ad analizzare il valore dello yuan commenta anche il regime di cambio scelto a Pechino. Secondo loro non è strettamente necessaria la libera fluttuazione di un tasso di cambio per poter raggiungere il suo valore reale. La relazione usd-rmb ponderata nel lungo periodo, comunque, raggiungerà per i due un valore equo.
disruptive. In the second place, other considerations matter in addition to the Balassa-Samuelson regression, including current monetary conditions. "
Milton Friedman, principale sostenitore del neo-liberalismo, risponde indirettamente: Un regime di tasso di cambio fluttuante significa, oltre mantenere una bassa e costante inflazione, assicurare una stabilità monetaria e promuovere una lungimirante politica estera. Se il Governo cinese avesse avuto l’intenzione di apprezzare la propria moneta fino al raggiungimento del suo valore ottimale, l’avrebbe lasciata valutare liberamente dalla domanda e dall’offerta.
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