Conferma del trend e aspettative Macro-globali
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In questi primi due mesi del 2005 abbiamo assistito ad un mercato azionario europeo che ha fatto una performance media del 4,5% circa, ad un Giappone con il 2,5% circa, agli Stati Uniti leggermente negativi su Standar & Poor e Dow Jones, con un Nasdaq che invece ha fatto una performance negativa del 5,6% circa.
A questo punto viene spontaneo chiedersi: puo' essere corretta un'impostazione a sovrappesare i mercati azionari a discapito degli obbligazionari?
Gli elementi per formulare la risposta a questa domanda sono molteplici e forti, il 2005 sara' il terzo anno consecutivo dell'espansione globale, ancor piu' impegnativo, non fosse altro che per la regola per cui il tempo che passa, in un ciclo di crescita porta via via ad un deterioramento del rapporto tra rischi ed opportunita', ma non per questo menointeressante;
A questo punto viene spontaneo chiedersi: puo' essere corretta un'impostazione a sovrappesare i mercati azionari a discapito degli obbligazionari?
Gli elementi per formulare la risposta a questa domanda sono molteplici e forti, il 2005 sara' il terzo anno consecutivo dell'espansione globale, ancor piu' impegnativo, non fosse altro che per la regola per cui il tempo che passa, in un ciclo di crescita porta via via ad un deterioramento del rapporto tra rischi ed opportunita', ma non per questo menointeressante;
- esistono comunque le condizioni (tassi reali negativi ) affinche' le imprese (con ingente liquidita') decidano di riappropriarsi della capacita' di guidare il mercato effettuando investimenti. Dato il tasso di incremento di produttività elevato (2% annuo il maggior incremento rispetto al costo del lavoro per unita' di prodotto) e data la dinamica degli utili (ai massimi storici) la via migliore per attuare questa strategia e' acquistare i concorrenti;
- terza considerazione: chi compra (o tiene in portafoglio) per esempio un titolo decennale europeo al 3,80%, sceglie di ingessare il suo portafoglio fino al 2015 in cambio di un rendimento reale dell'1,8% all'anno, posto per assunto che la BCE tenga l'inflazione intorno al 2%. Basta invece avere le idee chiare sulla prosecuzione o meno dell'espansione; probabilmente sarà piu' difficile rispetto agli ultimi due anni, ma prevedibilmente sara' ancora consistente (tutti gli esponenti della FED sono concordi nel prevedere una crescita intorno al 4% per il 2005); inoltre la riserva di forza lavoro inutilizzata e' diminuita, con un tasso di disoccupazione stabilmente attestato al 5.40%; a fronte di un tasso di incremento di produttivita' elevato e con una crescita in fase di espansione, sul fronte tassi la FED agira' sicuramente in modo da accondiscendere un ciclo economico che ha solo due anni e mezzo di vita e che gode ancora di ottima salute; stanti queste considerazioni è molto difficile ipotizzare un segno negativo per le borse: oggi lo SPX e' leggermente negativo da inizio anno; basterebbe una chiusura d'anno con un rialzo del 7% rispetto al primo gennaio per avere, con il 2% di dividendi, il 9% di ritorno totale ad oggi: piu' o meno due volte e mezzo di quanto offerto dai bond decennali europei; la scelta quindi rimanesempre la stessa!
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